Why Your Company Valuation Really Does Not Matter Yet

Your high valuation today might kill your next funding round

By Chloe Ferguson 4 min read
Why Your Company Valuation Really Does Not Matter Yet
Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki / Unsplash

You have seen the headlines.

You open LinkedIn and see a smiling founder standing in a generic office holding a coffee cup. The caption screams that they just raised a fresh round at a twenty million pound valuation.

Your immediate reaction is probably jealousy. You wonder why your startup, which actually makes money, is worth less than their PowerPoint deck. You start thinking that you need to go out and raise at a massive number to prove you are winning.

Stop right there.

That number is a trap. In the early stages of a company, your valuation is arguably the least important metric you have. In fact, obsessing over it is the fastest way to kill your business before it even starts.

Here is why you need to stop worrying about being a unicorn and start worrying about the math.

The Ego Metric

We need to admit that valuation is mostly about ego. It feels good to say your company is worth five million. It impresses your parents. It sounds great at dinner parties.

But paper valuation is not real money. You cannot spend it. You cannot pay your rent with it. It is simply a shorthand agreement between you and an investor about how much ownership you are giving up.

When you focus on maximizing this number, you are usually doing it for vanity. You want to win the TechCrunch headline game. But the higher that number goes, the heavier the expectations become. A high valuation comes with handcuffs.

Understanding the Mechanics

To understand why high valuations can be dangerous, you have to understand the basic math of the deal. This is where many founders get lost in the jargon.

There are two numbers you need to know.

First is the Pre-money valuation. This is what your company is worth right now, before a single penny of investment hits your bank account. It is the value of your idea, your team, and your intellectual property.

Second is the Post-money valuation. This is simply the pre-money valuation plus the cash you just raised.

If an investor says your company is worth five million post-money, but they are investing one million, that means your company was actually only worth four million pre-money.

Founders often brag about the post-money number because it is bigger. But the pre-money number is what determines how much of the company you actually own after the deal is done.

The Cap Table Conundrum

The only reason valuation matters at the seed stage is dilution. It determines how big a slice of the pie you are selling.

If you raise cash at a low valuation, you have to sell more shares to get the same amount of money. This messes up your Cap Table.

Your cap table is just a list of who owns what. If you sell 40% of your company in your first round because your valuation was too low, you are going to have a bad time later.

Investors in future rounds will look at your cap table, see that the founder only owns a tiny minority, and they will walk away. They want the founder to be motivated.

However, the opposite is also true. If you fight for a massive valuation to save your equity, you create a different problem.

The Trap of Great Expectations

Let's say you are a smooth talker. You convince an angel investor that your idea is the next Google. You raise your Seed Funding at a massive ten million valuation.

You feel like a genius. You sold a tiny sliver of equity for a huge check.

But now the clock is ticking.

To raise your next round of funding (Series A), you generally need to double or triple your valuation to show growth. If you start at ten million, your next investors will expect you to be worth twenty or thirty million.

To justify a thirty million valuation, you need massive revenue and growth. If you don't hit those aggressive targets, you are stuck. You cannot raise the next round because you haven't grown into your current price tag.

This leads to the dreaded "down round." This is when you have to raise money at a lower valuation than before. It destroys morale, wipes out early employee stock options, and signals to the market that your company is failing.

It is much better to raise at a modest, realistic number that you can easily beat.

Seed Funding is About Survival

The purpose of Seed Funding is not to make you rich on paper. It is to buy you eighteen months of runway to figure out if your product works.

When you are raising your seed round, stop trying to win the valuation lottery. Instead, focus on the partnership.

Is the valuation fair? Does it leave you with enough equity to stay motivated? Does it give the investor a fair stake so they want to help you?

If the answer to those questions is yes, take the deal.

A lower valuation with a helpful investor is worth infinitely more than a high valuation with a headache. A lower valuation sets the bar at a height you can actually jump over.

Focus on the Real Score

The only valuation that matters is the one at the exit. Everything in between is just noise.

You can have a company valued at one billion that goes bankrupt and returns zero to the founders. You can also have a company never valued above ten million that sells for cash and makes the founders wealthy.

Don't optimize for the headline. Optimize for the product. If you build something that generates real profit, the valuation will take care of itself.